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This round of price rises various types of power factor has gradually release, price inflection point appear in July this year, is expected to increase price running late will present the trend of the fall gradually
Article/XuLianZhong (the national development and reform commission price monitoring center researcher)
Since November 2009, the current round of prices have continued for 23 months, at present to judge this prices inflection point has set up a file in the July appear, is expected late price running will present the trend of rise gradually fell back.
This price reason is various, the influence of ample liquidity and excess, cost to promote, demand, international market influence is four major aspects.
Liquidity is the basic reason for price general goes up. In 2007 and 2008, China's economic body the broadest measure of money supply for 1.5 times of GDP slightly more. In 2009, the body of the our country economy the broadest measure of money supply scale has reached 1.78 times of GDP by 2010, is further increased to 1.82 times of GDP. At present, our economic body of broad money has more than 77.3 trillion yuan, is almost nearly double the GDP.
Real estate and stock market downturn, and not effective absorption funds to reduce the loss and value, a lot of money in all kinds of products, resource products to hedge on finding a way, for different properties in different degree product price rise a objective basis.
Demand rapid growth is the most basic reasons. Since 2003, China's fixed assets investment has been keeping a growth, especially in the financial crisis in 2009, the growth of investment rate to 30.0%. Especially since 2006, China's consumption also begins to appear rapid growth, with an average annual growth rate reached 15.8%, respectively higher than the "ninth five-year" period, the "tenth five-year plan" period of 5.2 and 4.0%. Since 2006, spending growth to speed up, and makes the consumer price gains were from the original 1% to 2% of the level of up to 3% ~ 5% of the level.
